The Use of GM Crops in Developing Countries
Growth in populations and demand for labour
2.7 Although growth in population has progressed somewhat more slowly than anticipated, the current global population of 6.3 billion people is expected to increase to 8.1 billion by 2030.2 Growth in population in Asia and Africa in 2030 is expected to be 1.33 and 1.76 times its present level, respectively. Groups in those regions most subject to poverty and undernutrition are expected to increase the most rapidly. Hence, requirements for food are likely to rise substantially.3
2.8 More important is the even faster growth predicted for the numbers of people of working age (15-59) in Asia and Africa. For example, in 2030, Africa’s population will have expanded by 1.76 times the level in 2000. However, the working-age population will be 1.97 times larger while the non-working-age population will only be 1.52 times as large.4 This higher ratio of workers can be advantageous if it is complemented by improved working opportunities. These are most affordable where agriculture raises yields and demand for labour, but they are a burden if it does not. Unless the rise in working age population is at least matched by rising numbers of jobs, employment or wage rates will fall. Poor people will then have even more difficulty in affording enough food.
Footnotes2 Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2003) World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (New York: UN).
3 A major increase in production of food grain per head will further be required, as increasing urbanisation, growth of populations and rise in incomes will lead to a higher demand for meat and dairy products. Between now and 2020 the demand is expected to double in developing countries, see Delgado C et al. (1999) 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture and the Environment Discussion Paper 28 Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution (Washington, DC: IFPRI). This expansion means that the demand for cereals used for animal feed will increase substantially, as approximately three to seven times as much cereal is needed to provide the same amount of calories as for people who consume animals as food.
4 Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2003) World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (New York: UN). In some African countries the HIV/AIDS virus considerably impacts this trend, for example in Kenya, see paragraph 3.61.