Predicting: The future of health?

Report

Joint report with the Ada Lovelace Institute

Assessing the potential, risks and appropriate role of AI-powered genomic health prediction in the UK health system.

AI and genomics futures is a joint project between the Ada Lovelace Institute and the Nuffield Council on Bioethics investigating the ethical issues arising from the convergence of AI and genomic science.

Publications

Predicting: The future of health? Assessing the potential, risks and appropriate role of AI-powered genomic health prediction (AIGHP) in the UK health system

This report, published in September 2024, explores potential effects of AIGHP on the UK healthcare system in the near future.

Our analysis is informed by a combination of our own desk-based research, expert interviews, an independently commissioned legal analysis, a series of scenario-mapping workshops with key experts and stakeholders, and a deliberative public engagement exercise.

Our evidence suggests that whilst AIGHP has the potential to improve healthcare outcomes, it may currently be an ineffective tool for mass disease prevention and reducing healthcare demand at a population level. We find that wide deployment of AIGHP across the population at present could create greater exposure to the risks associated with the technology – and greater costs – in exchange for uncertain benefit. The report therefore concludes that the NHS should currently refrain from a wide rollout of AIGHP aimed at healthcare demand reduction.

The report makes 10 recommendations, focused on minimising the risks and maximising the benefits of this rapidly advancing capability. These are aimed at the policymakers who would decide upon the parameters of AIGHP use in the NHS and oversee its rollout, were it to happen.

DNA.I. Early findings and emerging questions on the use of AI in genomics

DNA.I. is an interim report, published in 2023, which summarises the findings from the scoping phase of the AI and genomics futures project. It identifies some of the likely applications of AI in genomics, the significant questions these could raise for policy makers and for those working in genomics and AI, and the evidence gaps that need addressing in order to help steer the development of these technologies in line with public values and priorities. 

These early findings helped us to identify ‘AI-powered genomic health prediction’ as an application that raises significant questions, and the focus for the next phase of research published in a final report in 2024.

Project team

Harry Farmer

Researcher, Ada Lovelace Institute

Harry is a senior researcher at the Ada Lovelace Institute where he works to explore ethical and policy questions posed by new and emerging uses of data.

Andrew Strait

Associate Director (Research Partnerships), Ada Lovelace Institute

Andrew is an Associate Director at the Ada Lovelace Institute and is responsible for developing and shaping Ada’s research strategy and network.

Maili Raven-Adams

Researcher, Bioethics and Policy

Since joining us in May 2023, Maili has led our Environment and Health priority area and Genomics-related work. She also previously supported our independent review on disagreements in the care of critically ill children.

Before joining the team, Maili worked as Policy Analyst at the Global Alliance for Genomics and Health, based within the policy team at the Wellcome Sanger Institute. Here, she developed ethical and regulatory policies to support genomics and international data sharing.

Martin Davies

Associate Director, Research and Policy

Martin leads the strategy, delivery and quality assurance of the NCOB’s research and policy agenda in line with our organisational strategy.

Before joining the NCOB in July 2024, Martin was Head of Private and Commercial Law at The Law Society. Prior to that worked at the British Medical Association in the Medical Ethics and Human Rights team and led policy teams focussing on public health and on international affairs.